The recent IDEAS Conference could not have been more timely in highlighting the crossroads at which the evaluation community finds itself. With shifting narratives, shrinking budgets, and growing complexity in the development sector, many evaluators feel as if they’re navigating stormy seas on a small boat. Like R&D in other sectors, evaluation is often among the first to suffer cuts in times of crisis. Yet, if the conference revealed anything for me, it’s that a new era calls for new approaches—and that includes embracing technology.

A Crisis of Relevance

A central question at the conference was how to maintain evaluation’s relevance in a rapidly changing, multidimensional world. Reflecting on these discussions, I was reminded of Jared Diamond’s bestseller, Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis. In his book Diamond compares the crises of entire nations to personal crises that each of us face in our lives. In both scenarios, you can either confront the challenge or avoid it altogether. If you choose avoidance in a personal crisis, the consequences can be devastating—even fatal. The same logic applies to institutions and sectors and so action becomes not just a preference but a necessity.

Recognizing the Crisis and Taking Responsibility

The first step, Diamond asserts, is acknowledging that there is a crisis at all. The IDEAS Conference made it clear that the evaluation community has indeed reached this point of recognition. With shifting narratives, shrinking budgets, and intensifying demands for efficiency, many evaluators feel as if they’re navigating stormy seas on a small boat—an apt metaphor offered by Marie Gaarder, Executive Director of 3ie, during her closing remarks.

The second step is accepting responsibility—without scapegoating—to drive meaningful change. Although this acceptance may be less widespread than simple recognition, there is a growing sense among development practitioners that responsibility for adapting lies within the community itself.

Lessons from “Upheaval” and the Development Sector

Diamond outlines several imperatives for tackling crises:

• Honest self-appraisal: evaluating what works and what does not,

• Learning from others: exploring how different sectors or industries respond to similar threats,

• Adaptation: being willing to swallow the unpalatable when necessary.

These same principles apply to the challenges the evaluation community faces: gaps in evaluation use, timeliness, value for money, and issues of quality. Our own industry report highlighted similar hurdles, pointing to a need for new paradigms that elevate the role and value of evaluation in the development sector. By adopting selective change—akin to what Diamond advises for nations in upheaval—evaluation professionals can better demonstrate their worth, deliver timely insights, and improve overall impact.

The Rise of Technology and AI

One of the most prominent topics of the conference was the expected role of technology—particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI)—in shaping the future of evaluation. Session after session underscored the potential of AI and how advanced tools can enable evaluators to analyze data faster, more thoroughly, and with deeper insights.

Tools such as UNDPs AIDA were praised, yet, there was also a shared caution that technology should support evaluators, not drive them as stressed by Isabelle Mercier (UNDP). This is also clear for us at Elevaid that AI isn’t about replacing human expertise. We recognize that evaluation is ultimately about people. Our philosophy is therefore also one that AI should keep evaluators in the driver’s seat, preserving the human-centric nature of evaluation while leveraging technology to make processes more efficient and insights more actionable.

AI in evaluation is rather about amplifying our capabilities—allowing us to handle large volumes of data, synthesize findings more rapidly, and present more nuanced insights. When used responsibly, AI can lower costs and improve access to quality evaluations, supporting country-led efforts in building local capacity.

Tailor-Made Tools for Evaluation

The conference was however primarily still discussing how to use general purpose AI tools such as Chat GPT while the sector needs tools that go beyond the fragmented usability offered by general-purpose tools. This is also one the issues why many practitioners still don't have a full comprehension of targeted AI tools can actually do and degree to which this can be helpful to them. There is no clear perception among the community on the costs of the evaluation focused AI and affordability in this regard.

Its therefore necessary to raise awareness among practitioners on how Evaluation-focused AI tools can address the specific needs of the evaluation community to streamline data collection, improving timeliness, ensuring better stakeholder engagement, and facilitating capacity building. Also theoretical innovation alone isn’t enough. Tools must be tested in real-world settings to validate their utility and efficacy.

Conclusion: Navigating the Future

The IDEAS Conference highlighted both the magnitude of the challenges facing evaluators and the wealth of opportunities on the horizon. Yes, the seas are stormy. Yes, the winds are strong. But as Marie Gaarder’s sailing metaphor suggests, the storm can be navigated and survived with the right equipment, mindset and commitment.

1. Acknowledge the crisis: Recognition is the critical first step toward meaningful change.

2. Accept responsibility: Real, collective solutions require honest self-appraisal.

3. Adapt and learn: Look to other sectors, adopt selective change.

4. Leverage the tools you have: AI and other tools can be transformative, maintaining a focus on the human element.

As Jared Diamond reminds us, crises can become turning points if tackled head-on. This is a call to action for the evaluation community: to harness innovation, learn from others, and ultimately steer this ship into calmer, more promising waters.